A Study of the Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on WTI Crude Oil Prices in 2004 Based on ARIMA Forecasting Models

Abstract

Energy is an important basis for human survival and development, energy price stability is conducive to promoting economic development and maintaining the cost of living of residents, so it is necessary to explore the impact of energy price factors. This article for researching the impact of monetary policy on energy prices, based on the ARIMA model to predict the trend of WTI crude oil prices, through the comparison of forecasting crude oil prices with the actual crude oil prices, found that the tight monetary policy for crude oil prices has a positive impact. When the interest rate rises, the price of crude oil will also increase in the short term. This paper explores the impact of a single monetary policy factor on energy prices in the short run, excluding global economic turmoil and other factors such as geopolitics and wars. Furthermore, it provides some reference for monetary policy decisions, especially for energy market volatility in the short term.